As per latest report new movies Saaho, Chicchore & Dreamgirl have collected over Rs 125 Crores in this quarter (Q2FY20).
Hrithik vs Tiger War to collect Rs 250 Crore in its lifetime.
Box Office revenue growth for Q3FY20 for exhibitors estimated to surge 55% YoY due to multiple big releases, Financial Y20 to be historic in terms of highest ever collections.
Telugu film Sye Raa could be the big positive surprise this quarter.
Media Quick View
Hrithik Roshan & Tiger Shroff starrer War is slated to release on 2nd October, 2019 (Gandhi Jayanti Holiday) across almost 3,500 screens. This movie is estimated to do Rs 40 – 45 Crores on opening and lifetime Box Office collection of over Rs 250 Crores. This film will also have an advantage of Holiday on Dusshera next week.
Another big regional movie which is slated to release is Sye Raa (budget of over Rs 250 Crores), featuring Amitabh Bachchan in its cast, hindi version of this movie is estimated to do Rs 8 – 10 Crores on 1st day, whereas including regional languages the opening day could reach Rs 50 Crores, lifetime collection may surpass 100 Crores in Hindi based on word of mouth, whereas including regional the movie could breach the Rs 300 – 400 Crores mark in collection.
Saaho reported a largely in line performance as the Hindi version has collected almost Rs 137 Crore and including regional the collections have been almost Rs 300 Crores.
In terms of recent performances, selective medium budget movies continue to outperform as Dreamgirl / Chicchore is estimated to do lifetime collection Rs 135 / Rs 130 Crores respectively. Other medium budget movies like Zoya Factor, Prassthana, Pal Pal Dil ke Paas have reported a dismal performance which again proves that good content is king.
Hindi Box Office collection for Q2FY20 has grown 15% YoY to Rs 1,023 Crores revised downward from 19%YoY, as Jhund has been postponed; we believe this will translate into Box Office revenue growth of at least 12% -14% YoY based on Hindi content alone.
Success of Saaho in regional and Lion King in the Hollywood genre will lead to almost 20% YoY growth in Box Office revenue for exhibitors.
Other big movies slated to release in Q3FY20 are The Sky is Pink (Priyanka Chopra), Housefull 4 (Akshay Kumar), Dabangg 3 (Salman Khan), which will translate into Hindi Box Office collection growth of 55%YoY. Overall, we have estimated 25% YoY growth in Hindi Box Office for FY20 which will lead to Box Office revenue growth of at least 16%-18%YoY for PVR/Inox in FY20; this growth number for FY20 can move up further based on the regional and English movies performance.
Further, as per early release dates, Hindi Box Office collection in Q1FY21 too is slated to grow over 38% YoY despite a high base which proves the visibility for a healthy content pipeline in FY21 too.
We maintain our positive stance on the media exhibition space with a preference towards Inox over PVR. We have an Accumulate/Buy rating on PVR/Inox with a TP of Rs 1,825/Rs 420 respectively.
Karan Taurani @ Elara Capital