Ayushmaan Khurrana Movie Shubh Mangal Zyada Saavdhan estimated to collect Rs 70 Crore in its lifetime. Another horror film Bhoot (Vicky Kaushal) releasing on 21st February 2020, which is expected to collect Rs. 40 Crore.
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Love Aaj Kal reports a negative surprise; lifetime estimated to be Rs 37 Crore vs expectation of Rs 90 Crore.
BO (Box Office) revenue growth for Q4FY20 for exhibitors estimated to grow 3%-4% YoY, revised downwards yet again; 9M Box Office for FY21 looks strong at 15%YoY growth based on content pipeline visibility until now
Aayushman Khurrana starrer Shubh Mangal Zyaada Saavdhan and Vicky Kaushal starrer Bhoot is slated to release tomorrow. As per our conversation with movie distributors and traders, Shubh Mangal will open to a higher number of Rs 9 – 10cr vs Bhoot which is slated to open at Rs 5 crore in lifetime collection too, Shubh Mangal should do about Rs 70cr in its lifetime whereas Bhoot will be in the range of Rs 40-45 Crore. Both movies will see some boost on the opening day due to holiday of Mahashivratri. The previous version of Shubh Mangal Saavdahan had collected Rs 42cr at Box Office in 2017.
We are at the lag end of Feb’20 and still no movie except Tahnaji has failed to impress at Box Office in terms of numbers; Love Aaj Kal 2 has collected Rs 31cr until yesterday and is expected to report lifetime collection of mere 37cr which is much below are estimate of Rs 90cr.
Q4FY20 may turn out to be one of the worst quarters for Hindi Box Office as it is slated to grow mere 5%YoY (lowest since Q1FY19) towards Rs 1,247 Crore, some big positive surprise in Baaghi 3, Shubh Mangal Zyaada Savdhaan & Angrezi medium may save the day going ahead; We believe this will translate into Box Office revenue growth of mere 3%-4% YoY for Q4FY20 based on Hindi content alone; success of regional/ Hollywood genre will lead to higher YoY growth in Box Office revenue for exhibitors.
Q4FY20 still awaits a big positive surprise post Tahnaji which could uplift collections; slate of movies to be released are Baaghi 3 (Tiger Shroff), Angrezi Medium (Irrfan Khan) and Sooryavanshi (Akshay Kumar). Overall, we have estimated 16%YoY growth in Hindi Box Office for FY20 which will lead to Box Office revenue growth of at least 11%-12% YoY for PVR/Inox in FY20.
Further, as per release dates and content visibility until now, Hindi BO collection for 9MFY21 is slated to grow 15%YoY to Rs 3,570.
Karan Taurani @ Elara Capital