Love Aaj Kal 2 estimated to collect Rs 90 Crore in lifetime; the original Love Aaj Kal collected Rs 67 crore in 2009.
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Most movies like Malang, Shikara, Panga, Street Dancer fail to deliver at Box Office; regional content collection has seen good uptick
BO (Box Office) revenue growth for Q4FY20 for exhibitors estimated to grow 6% – 8% YoY, revised downwards from 12% due to poor show of multiple movies in the quarter except Tahnaji; Hindi Box Office estimated to grow 17% YoY in FY20.
Kartik Aaryan starrer Love Aaj Kal 2 is slated to release across 3,000 – 3,500 screens in India on 14 February, 2020. As per our conversation with movie distributors and traders, the movie will have an opening of Rs 10 crore on the first day and is estimated to do lifetime collection of Rs 90 crore. The original Saif starrer Love Aaj Kal had done a collection of Rs 67 crore at Box Office back in 2009; music of the remake movie has done well which should enable good collections
Almost half of Q4FY20 is over and we have no movie except Tahnaji has reported a positive surprise; the latter has collected Rs 257 Crore until yesterday and is estimated to Rs 260 crore lifetime. In terms of recent releases, Street Dance / Panga / Shikara / Malang (still running) have all fared below expectations collecting almost Rs 60 crore /20 crore /3 crore / 45 crore in their lifetime which is poor. Jawaani Jaaneman too was largely muted as it is estimated to do lifetime collection of Rs 30 – 35 crore.
Hindi Box Office collection for Q4FY20 is estimated to grow 10% YoY (revised downward from 22%) to Rs 1,303 cr, despite a very high base last year; the downward revision is on the back of poor performance of content as mentioned above We believe this will translate into Box Office revenue growth of at least 6%-8% YoY based on Hindi content alone; success of regional/ Hollywood genre will lead to higher YoY growth in Box Office revenue for exhibitors
In terms of regional content, this quarter has done reasonably better with releases like Ala Vaikunthapurramuloo, Sarileru Neekevvaru which are both Telugu films as the Tamil film Darbar did a below par performance (collected Rs 120 corer approx.); expect PVR to do better as compared to last quarter due to their large presence in regional led by SPI.
Q4FY20 still awaits a bg positive surprise post Tahnaji which could uplift collections; slate of movies to be released are Bhoot (Vicky Kaushal), Shubh Mangal Zyaada Saavdhaan (Ayushmaan Khurana) Baaghi 3 (Tiger Shroff), Angrezi Medium (Irrfan Khan) and Sooryavanshi (Akshay Kumar) . Overall, we have estimated 17%YoY growth in Hindi Box Office for FY20 which will lead to Box Office revenue growth of at least 11%-12% YoY for PVR/Inox in FY20
Further, as per release dates and content visibility until now, Hindi BO collection for 9MFY21 is slated to grow 13%YoY to Rs 3,500 as dates of the big release Brahmastra has been locked for 4th Dec 2020.
Karan Taurani @ Elara Capital