Detailed Analysis on Bollywood Upcoming Hindi Movies Release
Ajay Devgn starrer Tanhaji & Deepika Padukone starrer Chhapaak is slated to release on 10th January 2020, estimated to collect Rs 140 crores & Rs 75 crores in its lifetime respectively.
This News is Brought You By www.satiitv.com
Good Newz has collected Rs 173 Crores until yesterday and will reach Rs 200 Crores, Dabbang 3 estimated to collect Rs 140cr in its lifetime will fall short of our estimate of Rs 150cr.
Box Office revenue growth for Q4FY20 for exhibitors estimated to grow 11%-13% YoY, backed by a large pipeline of content driven films, Hindi Box Office estimated to grow 20%YoY in FY20.
Hindi Box Office slated to grow 9% YoY in H1FY21; however, if the big releasee (not yet come with a confirmed release date) releases in H1, the growth could be in excess of 25% (YoY).
A total of 254 Hindi films were released in CY19 which included 39 dubbed films (English and Regional based); out of this only 13% were a success at Box Office whereas balance 87% failed to make a mark.
Ajay Devgn starrer Tahnaji and Deepika Padukone starrer Chhapaak is slated to release on 10th January, 2020 across almost 3,000 and 1,800 screens respectively. As per our conversation with movie distributors and traders, Tanhaji will have much better opening with Rs 15-16cr on day one vs an opening of mere Rs 7 Crore for Chhapaak; even in terms of lifetime collection Tanhaji is estimated to collect Rs 140 Crores, which is almost double than the lifetime collection expectation of Rs 75cr for Chhapaak. Tahnaji will particularly do well in the Maharashtra circuit which roughly contributes 30% of the Box Office due to the Marathi warrior story content.
Month of Jan’20 began on a strong note due to Good Newz which has already collected Rs 173 crores until yesterday and estimated to report lifetime collection of Rs 200cr in line with our estimates of Rs 180-200cr.
Hindi Box Office collection for Q4FY20 is estimated to grow 20%YoY to Rs 1,425 Crores, despite a very high base last year. We believe this will translate into Box Office revenue growth of at least 11%-13% YoY based on Hindi content alone; success of regional/ Hollywood genre will lead to higher YoY growth in Box Office revenue for exhibitors.
In terms of regional content it will be a very big quarter led by the release of Rajinikanth starrer Darbar which has already released today; further some more regional films released towards last week of Dec’19 have reported healthy collections which will positively impact Q4FY20 collections for regional genre.
Q4FY20 looks like an exciting quarter with multiple big and good content driven releases lined up like Street Dancer (Varun Dhawan), Panga (Kangana Ranaut), Aaj Kal (Kartik Aaryan), Bhoot (Vicky Kaushal), Shubh Mangal Zyaada Saavdhaan (Ayushmaan Khurana) Baaghi 3 (Tiger Shroff), Angrezi Medium (Irrfan Khan) and Sooryavanshi (Akshay Kumar) . Overall, we have estimated 20%YoY growth in Hindi Box Office for FY20 which will lead to Box Office revenue growth of at least 13%-14% YoY for PVR/Inox in FY20.
Further, as per early release dates, Hindi BO collection in H1FY21 is slated to grow 9%YoY despite a large base; this growth estimate will be revised upwards as Q2FY21 is expected to see multiple addition of movies once release dates are allotted. Further, the above indicated growth is excluding Brahmastra (Ranbir Kapoor) which is a large budget release; once the latter’s release date is finalized for H1FY20, growth can be excess of 25%YoY for Hindi Box Office.
A total of 254 Hindi films were released in CY19 which included 39 dubbed films (English and Regional based); out of this only 13% were a success at Box Office whereas balance 87% failed to make a mark. Some of the large success at Box Office were films like Avengers Endgame (Dubbed), War, Kabir Singh, Uri Surgical strike and Lion King (dubbed).
We maintain our positive stance on the media exhibition space with a preference towards Inox over PVR. We have an Accumulate/Buy rating on PVR/Inox with a TP of Rs 2,050/Rs 490 respectively.
Karan Taurani @ Elara Capital