Movies Lead Box Office Revenue Driven by Strong Content

Box Office Revenue

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Impact Analysis

Box Office revenue for PVR / Inox estimated to grow at least 27% YoY in Q4FY19 based on Hindi movie collection estimates; second consecutive quarter with over 20% YoY growth.

Outperformance in English / Hindi may drive growth further

Manikarnika and Thackeray estimated to report lifetime Box Office collection of Rs 100cr and Rs 60cr respectively.

Positive surprises continue on small / medium Hindi movies as URI becomes a blockbuster with lifetime collection of Rs 170crore.

Simmba reports lifetime collection of Rs 230cr ahead of our estimate of Rs 180cr.

Detailed Write Up

Two biopics are slated to release tomorrow – Rani Laxmibai (Manikarnika) and Bal Thackeray (Thackeray) across almost 2,500 screens and 2,000 screens respectively.

As per our conversation with distributors better word of mouth for any of the movies will drive screen presence for them. The movies are estimated to open with a collection of Rs 10.5 crore and Rs 6 crore on the first day. As per movie distributors, Manikarnika currently looks to have an edge over Thackeray; both are estimated to collect almost Rs 160 crore in Box Office put together, out of which Manikarnika would be almost Rs 95-100 crore.

Thackeray is also dubbed in Marathi and is expected to do extremely well in the Maharashtra & Gujarat circuit which accounts for almost 36% of Hindi Box Office revenue; on the other hand, Manikarnika will have a more pan India demand.

This is Nawazuddin’s first solo film which has a reasonable scale, whereas Kangana has had a rough patch ever since 2015 (Tanu Wed Manu Returns), however given the audience preference to watch more non fiction/biopic based content, Manikarnika is expected to do well.

As per industry sources, Manikarnika has been made at a budget of over Rs 100 crore and managed to recovery half its cost through ancillary rights (digital, satellite and music).

In terms of recent releases, URI has delivered a big surprise collecting Rs 122 crore until yesterday with lifetime collection estimated to be much beyond Rs 150 crore; Cheat India and Fraud Saiyaan have been poor in terms of collections. FY19 remains to be a year where a large number of small / medium budget movies continue to do extremely well in terms of collections.

As per our estimates, Hindi BO collection growth for Q4FY19 is estimated to be 45%YoY whereas FY19 BO collections would grow almost 16%YoY.

Q4FY19 pipeline too looks strong given releases of movies like Gully Boy (Ranveer Singh), Total Dhamaal (Ajay Devgan), Lukka Chuppi (Kartik Aryan), and Kesari (Akshay Kumar).

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We maintain our positive stance on the Indian exhibition segment with a skewed preference towards Inox vs PVR given the compelling valuation discount, better ad. Growth prospects, higher SPH growth and better scalability prospects led by higher screen addition. We maintain our view that Q4FY19 will be one of the stronger quarters as Box Office revenue is estimated to grow over 45% YoY for PVR (Ex SPI) / Inox which will also support better SPH/ad growth prospects.

Karan Taurani

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